Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS64 KFWD 020648
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1248 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures in the 60s to around 70 are expected
  today and Tuesday.

- A cold front will bring widely scattered showers and a few
  thunderstorms east of I-35 on Tuesday, with light rainfall
  totals less than one quarter inch expected.

- Following a cooler day in the 50s on Wednesday, above normal
  temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected the rest of the
  week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Much warmer this morning than the previous two mornings across
North and Central Texas thanks to south winds keeping the BL
mixed, with current readings ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.
Lows should only drop into the low to mid 30s areawide by sunrise,
although a few upper 20s are possible. Despite the cooler start,
the warmest day we have seen in nearly 2 weeks is anticipated
today thanks to a 20-30kt southwesterly LLJ. Highs are expected to
soar over 30 degrees from this morning`s lows and reach well into
the 60s to around 70 this afternoon under mostly clear skies.

An even warmer night is on the way for Monday night as Gulf
moisture increases and low clouds spread across much of the
forecast area ahead of an approaching weak cold front, with lows
only dropping into the mid 40s to mid 50s. This front looks to
take its sweet time moving through our area on Tuesday, and
likely won`t be completely out of the cwa until Tuesday evening
per 00Z guidance. Ahead of the front, widely scattered showers
are anticipated to develop Tuesday morning east of I-35, then
increase in coverage over our southeast counties Tuesday
afternoon before exiting by Tuesday evening. Forecast soundings
show MUCAPE up to 300 J/Kg along with steep mid level lapse rates
to 8 C/km, so a few thunderstorms are also possible. Can`t rule
out some isolated small hail with the strongest cores given the
forecast lapse rates and cold mid-level temperatures near -20C at
500mb, but nothing strong or severe is anticipated. Rainfall
totals look very light and less than one quarter inch for our
counties, with rain staying mostly east of the I-35 urban
corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

In the wake of Tuesday`s cold front, Wednesday will be cooler
with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. A deep upper trough
swinging NW to SE across the southern Plains could also bring a
few sprinkles to the region on Wednesday, but no pops appear
warranted attm. The rest of the week and upcoming weekend appear
dry and much warmer as a large upper ridge builds across the
Plains and Rockies. This pattern will bring an extended period of
above normal temperatures to North and Central Texas from
Thursday through at least Sunday, with highs reaching the 60s/70s
and lows in the 30s/40s. 00Z GFS/ECWMF indicate the upper pattern
will transition to a large trough over the western CONUS with a
ridge over the east, which typically is a warm and wet pattern
for us - so the unusually warm weather will likely continue into
the second week of February.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow at all airports
although MVFR cigs are likely near the end of and after the
current TAF period. SKC is anticipated tonight into Monday
morning with south winds up to 10 knots, with increasing cirrus
clouds and stronger south winds around 15 knots Monday afternoon.
South winds will subside somewhat Monday evening/night with MVFR
cigs potentially arriving at ACT after 30/03Z and D10 airports
around/after 30/06Z.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  35  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
Waco                55  35  68  54 /   0   0   0  10
Paris               47  30  62  47 /   0   0   0  30
Denton              54  30  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
McKinney            51  32  65  47 /   0   0   0  20
Dallas              54  36  67  51 /   0   0   0  20
Terrell             52  32  65  50 /   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           54  35  68  54 /   0   0   0  20
Temple              57  33  68  53 /   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       59  32  70  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger